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Hal Varian, chief economist at Google, has a simple way to predict the future. The future is simply what rich people have today. The rich have chauffeurs. In the future, we will have driverless cars that chauffeur us all around. The rich have private bankers. In the future, we will all have robo-bankers.
One thing that we imagine that the rich have today are lives of leisure. So will our future be one in which we too have lives of leisure, and the machines are taking the sweat? We will be able to spend our time on more important things than simply feeding and housing ourselves?
Let’s turn to another chief economist. Andy Haldane is chief economist at the Bank of England. In November 2015, he predicted that 15 million jobs in the UK, roughly half of all jobs, were under threat from automation. You’d hope he knew what he was talking about.
AdvertisementAnd he’s not the only one making dire predictions. Politicians. Bankers. Industrialists. They’re all saying a similar thing.
“We need urgently to face the challenge of automation, robotics that could make so much of contemporary work redundant”, Jeremy Corbyn at the Labour Party Conference in September 2017.
“World Bank data has predicted that the proportion of jobs threatened by automation in India is 69 percent, 77 percent in China and as high as 85 percent in Ethiopia”, according to World Bank president Jim Yong Kim in 2016.
It really does sound like we might be facing the end of work as we know it.
Many of these fears can be traced back to a 2013 study from the University of Oxford. This made a much quoted prediction that 47% of jobs in the US were under threat of automation in the next two decades. Other more recent and detailed studies have made similar dramatic predictions.
Now, there’s a lot to criticize in the Oxford study. From a technical perspective, some of report’s predictions are clearly wrong. The report gives a 94% probability that bicycle repair person will be automated in the next two decades. And, as someone trying to build that future, I can reassure any bicycle repair person that there is zero chance that we will automate even small parts of your job anytime soon. The truth of the matter is no one has any real idea of the number of jobs at risk.
Even if we have as many as 47% of jobs automated, this won’t translate into 47% unemployment. One reason is that we might just work a shorter week. That was the case in the Industrial Revolution. Before the Industrial Revolution, many worked 60 hours per week. After the Industrial Revolution, work reduced to around 40 hours per week. The same could happen with the unfolding AI Revolution.
Another reason that 47% automation won’t translate into 47% unemployment is that all technologies create new jobs as well as destroy them. That’s been the case in the past, and we have no reason to suppose that it won’t be the case in the future. There is, however, no fundamental law of economics that requires the same number of jobs to be created as destroyed. In the past, more jobs were created than destroyed but it doesn’t have to be so in the future.
In the Industrial Revolution, machines took over many of the physical tasks we used to do. But we humans were still left with all the cognitive tasks. This time, as machines start to take on many of the cognitive tasks too, there’s the worrying question: what is left for us humans?
Some of my colleagues suggest there will be plenty of new jobs like robot repair person. I am entirely unconvinced by such claims. The thousands of people who used to paint and weld in most of our car factories got replaced by only a couple of robot repair people.
No, the new jobs will have to be doing jobs where either humans excel or where we choose not to have machines. But here’s the contradiction. In fifty to hundred years time, machines will be super-human. So it’s hard to imagine of any job where humans will remain better than the machines. This means the only jobs left will be those where we prefer humans to do them.
The AI Revolution then will be about rediscovering the things that make us human. Technically, machines will have become amazing artists. They will be able to write music to rival Bach, and paintings to match Picasso. But we’ll still prefer works produced by human artists.
These works will speak to the human experience. We will appreciate a human artist who speaks about love because we have this in common. No machine will truly experience love like we do.
As well as the artistic, there will be a re-appreciation of the artisan. Indeed, we see the beginnings of this already in hipster culture. We will appreciate more and more those things made by the human hand. Mass-produced goods made by machine will become cheap. But items made by hand will be rare and increasingly valuable.
Finally as social animals, we will also increasingly appreciate and value social interactions with other humans. So the most important human traits will be our social and emotional intelligence, as well as our artistic and artisan skills. The irony is that our technological future will not be about technology but all about our humanity.
Toby Walsh is Professor of Artificial Intelligence at the University of New South Wales, in Sydney, Australia. His new book, “Android Dreams: the past, present and future of Artificial Intelligence” was published in the UK by Hurst Publishers in September 2017. It’s available from the Guardian Bookshop. You can read more at his blog, http://thefutureofai.blogspot.com/
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Câu này
''I think living in the countryside has many good point''
Bạn có thể thay từ '' good point'' thành ''advantages'' thì bài sẽ hay hơn
Living in the country is something that people from the city often dream about. However, in reality, it has both advantages and ____disadvantages_______.
There are certainly many advantages to living in the country. First of all, you can enjoy __peace_____ and quiet. Morever, people are friendlier. Ther is less ___traffic___, so it is ___safer___for young children.
However, there are some disadvantages to life outside the city . Firstly, because there are __fewer___ people, you have few friends. In addition, entertainment is difficult to find, especially ____in___ the evening.
There are _____fewer___ shops and services, so it is hard to find __work_____. On the whole, the country is often the___best____ place for those people who are retired or who have young children.
1.According to the passage,living in the country has ________
A.only good points
B.only bad points
C.both good and bad points
D.no disadvantages
2.How many advantages does living in the country have?
A.two
B.three
C.four
D.no
3.Living in the country is safer for children because___________
A.there is less traffic
B.there are few shops
C.there are fewer people
D.there are fewer services
4.Which of the following statements is NOT true according to the passenger?
A.People in the country tend to be friendlier than people in the city.
B.It's hard to find entertainment in the country.
C.There are fewer shops and services in the country.
D.The country is only suitable for retired people.
5.Having few friends is_______
A.one of drawbacks to life in the country
B.the only disadvantage to living in the country
C.one of certain drawbacks to life outside the city.
D.one of certainad vantages to life outside the city
TOPIC 1
1. I often listen to music in my free time.
2. Yes, I do / No, I don't.
3. Yes, I do / No, I don't.
4. How do you feel when you learn English?
TOPIC 2
1. I like the air in the countryside and I dislike the food here.
2. Yes, they are/ No, they aren't.
3. It's so slow and peaceful.
4. It's very fresh and tasty.
TOPIC 3
1. It's Tet.
2. It's held on the 1st day of the 1st lunar month.
3. It's held all over of my country - Vietnam.
4. During Tet, I decorate my house, visit relatives, go to the pagoda, watch firework,...
TOPIC 4
1. Customs: We go to bed at 10 p.m, get up at 6 a.m, go out every weekend.
Traditions: We make banh chung, go to the pagoda, visit relatives at Tet.
2. Because it's so interesting.
1, It's Tan Xuân
2,yes,they are
3,many house
new strees
....
4,yes,I do
5,because ,fun and beautyful and most
In my opinion, living in the countryside has its own pros and cons. According to benefits, it has fresh air, quite environment and friendly neighbors. Firstly, you have a healthy life. There are no dust, no smoke and no traffic jam. The air is fresh and the rain is also very clean. You can get raging water to cook rice and certainly have and tasted meal. Secondly, living in the countryside is peacful. It is very quiet to relax after working or there are many beautiful wide fields and fresh air.Finally, there are no separations in your town. Your neighors are friendly and helpful. They are really best friends. They will help you pleasently if you have trouble. Each problem has its solution anf your neighbors will share it for you. In conclusion, I prefer to live in the countryside, but I don't want to live there permanently.
Fill each of the blanks with ONE word to complete the following passage.
When you are travelling, (1)_whether_____-on business or for pleasure, you often need to stay in a hotel. The kind of hotel you choose probably is decided above all ___according____ (2) to how much money you want to spend. There are small hotels with very few services, where the prices are (4)__low____ or there are large hotels with all the very latest comforts, (4)__where______you could spend all the money you have in the bank for one very comfortable night. There are several different kinds of people who go to hotels. Some want to live, (5)__rather____than just stay, in a hotel; the hotels which are designed to meet their needs are called residential hotels. However, most people who stay in hotels are either business people or tourists (5)_on_____holiday.
In(7)__addition____hotels, there are two kinds of rooms: (8) __single__rooms, for the use of one person, and double rooms for the use of two people. In (9)____some___, in large hotels, there are also suites, which include two or more rooms connected (10)_together_____-perhaps a bedroom and a living room. These are for poeple who are very rich or very important.
